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Having scored nine times in his first seven Premier League games, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has begun the season with incredible momentum.

Although this isn't his best start to a season - he scored 11 goals in his opening seven appearances in the 2022-23 season and 10 last season - it nevertheless places him with a three-goal lead in the opening stages for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The reality that none of his nine goals have been spot-kicks renders it particularly impressive.

What Makes Haaland Special

Of course, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the honor so soon in the campaign.

First, the quantity of strikes he has currently registered - and, just as importantly, the total and standard of opportunities he's receiving.

Secondly, the sluggish beginning his typical competitors for the honor have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A player's expected goals number (xG) indicates how many goals a English league attacker has historically scored from the quantity and caliber of scoring situations he's encountered.

This isn't a number randomly picked by data analysts, but by historical Premier League data.

And if we look at players' xG in the Premier League so far this season from open play, the Norway forward is obtaining considerably more excellent scoring situations to find the net than anyone else.

Indeed, even if Haaland didn't excel at finishing chances than any other player in the division, he would nevertheless have converted more than twice as many goals as everyone else.

Scoring Situation Assessment

That is demonstrated by breaking down the quantity and caliber of scoring situations that footballers have received in the top flight so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this season, a dozen more than all other attackers.

This is actually not that remarkable for him - he had previously registered more non-spot-kick efforts at this stage in the last two seasons (30 in last season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

What's particularly remarkable even by his standards is the caliber of opportunities he has had this season. His shots have had an chance quality metric of 0.27 per attempt.

This statistic indicates is that players have historically converted the shots he has had at a 27% success ratio.

Regarding attackers registering at least 10 shots, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to net per shot - due to a several close-range conversions against the Hammers and Seagulls.

City striker's xG statistic of 0.27 per shot is much higher than the 0.17 expected goals per effort he had at the opening of last term.

In short, the chances he has had in the current season have been notably easier to find the net from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Historical Comparison

Starting a season so powerfully is, as noted earlier, typical for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last term he had registered ten strikes - four additional compared to anyone else and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Liverpool forward who won the Golden Boot with 29 conversions, seven more than the Etihad attacker.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has scored half the number goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

In fact this has been the most subdued opening to a English top-flight campaign the Egypt forward has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It isn't only Salah who has opened quietly either. When examining at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last campaign, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the other 10 players combined so far.

Whether because of fitness issues - several key attackers - long-running transfer sagas in Alexander Isak's case or just due to the fact that their teams have struggled (several proven attackers), Haaland's potential challengers in the race for the Golden Boot have failed to perform so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

Even as Haaland seems the clear favourite for the Premier League scoring title, what about the European top scorer prize that is awarded to the footballer scoring the most in the continent's elite divisions?

That race is considerably more open at this opening period because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have also started in excellent condition, with 11 and 9 conversions each.

The fact Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the highest xG of the three without having taken any penalties positions him as the favourite.

However, because the English and French stars are some of the most excellent converters in European soccer in terms of outperforming their chance quality metrics, the race is certainly on.